WEEK 6: PREDICTING THE FUTURE?

To be honest, I am finding all this discussion and review in Marketing techniques and philosophies a bit dry.  So this week, I thought I'd mix it up a bit and try to make things a little more interesting by broadening my view of marketing to encompass human behavior. Below is my attempt to stretch the ideas of Drucker to a greater sense of the world.... I hope you find it interesting at least.

 "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." - Mahatma Gandhi 

"The Best Way to Predict the Future,

 Is to Create It" Peter Drucker

In this week's reading, we learn about Drucker's perspective on predicting the future.  I found it interesting that the two quotes above by two very different men on how to predict and change the future actually have quite a bit in common.  Now, to be sure, I am NOT trying to equate Drucker with Ghandi (a very great man).  I am saying that in these two sentiments, there is commonality and it's very interesting to explore.   Both men studied human behavior and explored their own perspectives there-in.

In Ghandi's statement, I believe that he is trying to say that future change comes about by seriously looking inside and emulating the future state your want to see.  In other words, make the changes in yourself now, and the future will be the result of your current actions.

Similarly, when Drucker is asked how he is able to so accurately predict future events he states:

     “I listen.... to myself.....I simply look out the window and report what I see and what events that have already occurred mean for the future. This simple step of describing the obvious result of previous occurrences gives some the impression that I am predicting the future. The reality is that I am merely stating the obvious...”

Drucker goes on to state that we know only two things about the future:

1. The future cannot be known.
2. The future will be different both from what exists now and from what we expect.

This may sound contradictory but in reality, it is not.  

HOW DO WE PREDICT THE FUTURE?

Most people use past events to predict future events. ie- sales of product "X" have been growing by 10% monthly for the last 3 months, therefore it should continue to grow for the next 6 months.

This is a very tempting approach but at best it is equivalent to driving your car by looking in the rear view mirror.  You only see where you've been, not where you're going.

What Drucker is saying is that current events have set in motion certain forces that will drive future events.  If we can properly study current events, we can do a better job of predicting future outcomes of events set in motion today.

Similarly, Ghandi is saying that a desired future state will not arrive unless we set in motion, today, behaviors that support that future state.

For a company to do a good job of setting a realist goal for it's future, it must as itself 4 basic question:

1. What opportunities does the company want to pursue, and what risks is it willing and able to accept?
2. What are the scope and structure of the organization’s strategy, including the right balance among such aspects as specialization, diversification, and integration?
3. What are considered acceptable trade-offs for a company between time and money and between in-house execution and using a merger, acquisition, joint venture, or some external means to reach its objectives and attain its goals?
4. What is the organizational structure appropriate to the company’s economic realities, the opportunities, and it performance expectations? 

It is only through a thorough study of these questions that a company can craft a future vision that is attainable whether it be in product offering or competitive advantage.

I hope my simple comparison has not offended anyone as I readily acknowledge that the affect that Ghandi has had on humanity is on a much grander scale than Drucker's teaching.  My simple point here is that basic wisdom is at the core of all significant thought and conclusions.